July 2026 PRN Market Review: Higher prices, limited supply response

Market Overview

July marked an important milestone for the market, with reporting moving to a credited waste balance methodology rather than operational recycling figures. While this provides greater visibility over evidence actually available for issuance, it also means direct comparisons with previous market updates should be treated with caution.

The market currently sits at 57.3% coverage, including carry-in evidence, compared with Envirovert’s risk-adjusted benchmark of 60% for this stage of the year. The overall gap has narrowed considerably since June, falling from approximately 547,000 tonnes to around 200,000 tonnes. However, part of this apparent improvement reflects the revised reporting methodology rather than an equivalent increase in supply.

Some materials continue to perform relatively well. Glass Remelt remains comfortably ahead of benchmark levels, while Aluminium sits marginally ahead of the required trajectory. Paper & Board is close to benchmark but remains heavily reliant on export evidence.

In contrast, Steel, Plastic, Wood and Glass Aggregate continue to lag behind target trajectories, with Steel and Plastic standing out as the market’s most significant areas of concern.

Why Producers Should Pay Attention

The challenge facing producers is no longer simply whether reporting improvements will reveal additional supply.

The market now requires approximately 639,000 tonnes of evidence per month between August and December, compared with an average monthly supply rate of around 531,000 tonnes achieved so far in 2026. In practical terms, this means evidence generation must accelerate by approximately 20% across the market to achieve current obligations.

This challenge is not evenly distributed across material streams. While some materials are already performing at or above required levels, others require substantial and sustained increases in supply generation during the remainder of the year.

Compounding this challenge is the potential for revised obligation data to increase producer requirements further, widening existing deficits and placing additional pressure on already constrained material streams.

What Envirovert’s Analysts Are Watching

One of the clearest themes emerging from the July data is the apparent disconnect between PRN prices and supply generation.

Historically, higher prices have incentivised additional recycling activity and evidence generation. However, despite significant price increases throughout much of 2026, supply growth in several key materials has remained limited.

Plastic provides perhaps the strongest example. Despite sustained price increases, credited waste balances have remained broadly stable at levels materially below those required to achieve compliance. Steel faces a similar challenge, with recent improvements proving insufficient to close the gap to target.

Envirovert’s analysts are closely monitoring:

• Whether higher prices begin to stimulate additional accredited tonnage.
• The impact of outstanding returns, particularly in plastic where 23 submissions remain outstanding.
• Potential increases in final producer obligations.
• Recovery rates in steel during the second half of the year.
• Export-dependent evidence generation across Paper & Board and other key materials.
• Further regulatory communications relating to compliance risks and market conditions.

Conclusion

The July data supports a conclusion that is becoming increasingly difficult for the market to ignore: higher PRN prices alone are not generating the supply response traditionally expected by producers and compliance schemes.

Although headline coverage has improved compared with earlier months, much of that movement reflects changes in reporting methodology rather than a fundamental improvement in underlying supply. Steel and Plastic continue to present the most significant compliance risks, while the possibility of increased obligations adds further uncertainty to the market outlook.

For producers, the prudent approach remains clear. Compliance planning should continue to focus on material-specific risk exposure, realistic supply assumptions and robust procurement strategies rather than relying on higher prices, reporting corrections or regulatory intervention to close emerging supply gaps.

Need help assessing your PRN exposure? Envirovert’s compliance specialists can help benchmark your procurement position, assess material-specific risks and prepare for changing market conditions ahead of year-end.