July 2026 PRN Market Review: Higher Prices, But Where Is the Supply?

At first glance, the July figures appear more encouraging than the June position.

Coverage has increased from 52.7% in June to 57.3% by the end of July, and the gap to a risk-adjusted benchmark has narrowed considerably. However, the improvement needs to be viewed in context. July is the first publication based on credited waste balances rather than reported operational recycling, meaning the two datasets are not directly comparable.

The more important measure is what the market still needs to achieve.

To meet the current obligation, approximately 3.2 million tonnes of additional evidence must be generated between August and December. That requires an average monthly supply rate of around 639,000 tonnes, compared with a current run rate of roughly 531,000 tonnes. In practical terms, supply must accelerate by around 20% across the market during the final five months of the compliance year.

The challenge is particularly concentrated in a small number of materials.

Steel continues to require the largest recovery whilst plastic remains similarly challenging.

Whilst still requiring close attention, glass presents a more mixed picture. Glass Other has shown meaningful improvement compared with earlier in the year, while remelt continues to outperform the wider market and remains comfortably ahead of the prudent compliance trajectory.

Why Producers Should Pay Attention

The central message from the July data is not simply that supply remains below target.

It is that higher prices have so far failed to generate the supply response the market would normally expect.

Historically, rising PRN values have encouraged additional material to enter the accredited recycling system. This has helped balance supply and demand as compliance pressures increased through the year. The July figures suggest that relationship may currently be weaker than many market participants assumed.

The implication for producers is that procurement planning should not rely solely on the expectation of future supply recovery.

What Envirovert’s Analysts Are Watching

Several indicators are likely to shape the remainder of the compliance year.

The key question remains whether higher evidence values eventually attract additional accredited recycling activity. If supply rates remain broadly unchanged through the autumn, concerns around structural shortages are likely to increase.

The full PRN Market Intelligence Report explores:

• Material-specific compliance risks
• Market exposure by material stream
• Supply and demand outlooks
• Potential regulatory intervention scenarios
• Procurement considerations
• Compliance benchmarking methodologies
• Risk-adjusted market outlooks
• The indicators most likely to influence market conditions during Q4

Conclusion

The July data reinforces a concern that has been building steadily throughout 2026.

While overall market coverage has improved, the market still requires a significant acceleration in supply during the remainder of the compliance year.

Steel and plastic continue to represent the greatest compliance risks, while uncertainty around final producer demand remains an important unknown.

For producers, the prudent approach remains unchanged: understand your exposure, monitor developments closely and build procurement strategies around realistic market conditions rather than assumptions that future supply will automatically emerge.