Q1 2026 UK PRN Market Insights

What changed in reporting

• New system: Reporting moved from NPWD to RPD, altering categories and timing of submissions.
• New categories: Data now separates tonnage received, recycled, sent on, and PRNs/PERNs issued.
• A UK-wide view requires combining England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
• Practical impact: Comparability with previous years is limited, and missing/late submissions are harder to spot—so headline trends warrant caution.

Market backdrop at a glance

• Total Q1 supply: 1.45m tonnes vs 1.89m in Q1 2025 (-23%).
• Forecast 2026 obligation: c.+4% year-on-year.
• Stronger: Glass Remelt (+19%), Aluminium (+6%), Steel (+2%), Total Glass (+8%).
• Weaker: Paper (-34%), Plastic (-28%), Wood (-38%), Glass Aggregate (-45%).

Material snapshots: What the data implies

Paper

• Q1 2026: 659,866 t (vs 1,002,796 t), -34%.
• Watchpoint: Largest absolute drop. Export/PERN timing and RPD transition could be factors.
• Where pressure could build: If Q2 doesn’t rebound, buyers may face firmer pricing; sellers with visible, verified evidence may see stronger interest.

Glass Remelt

• Q1 2026: 349,139 t (vs 292,676 t), +19%.
• Strength: Ahead of quarterly demand pacing; supportive for total glass.
• Price dynamic: Stable-to-firm if remelt continues to cover aggregate weakness; sensitivity rises if aggregate stays soft.

Glass Aggregate

• Q1 2026: 35,191 t (vs 64,401 t), -45%.
• Constraint: Below estimated demand pace; continuation of 2025 softness.
• Price pressure: Elevated if shortfall persists; reliance on remelt likely keeps the glass complex tight.

Total Glass

• Q1 2026: 384,330 t (vs 357,077 t), +8%.
• Nuance: Headline up, but mix depends on remelt carrying aggregate.
• Implication: Balance risks if the aggregate does not recover.

Aluminium

• Q1 2026: 36,141 t (vs 34,121 t), +6%.
• Read: Broadly balanced and close to demand pacing.
• Price view: Neutral near term; steady supply still needed as obligations rise.

Steel

• Q1 2026: 84,262 t (vs 82,667 t), +2%.
• Read: Slightly ahead of pace; 2026 obligation lower than 2025 supports stability.
• Price view: Lower risk relative to tighter materials.

Plastic

• Q1 2026: 206,303 t (vs 285,612 t), -28%.
• Gap: c.112,000 t short vs straight-line demand pacing; export verification may affect PERN timing.
• Price pressure: High if Q2 doesn’t improve; volatility risk elevated.

Wood

• Q1 2026: 81,814 t (vs 132,537 t), -38%.
• Shift: Historical oversupply fading post general recycling removal; reporting variance still a factor.
• Price view: Firming risk if reductions persist.

Buyer lens: What to do now

• Prioritise coverage reviews in Plastic, Paper, Wood, and Glass Aggregate.
• Stagger purchasing to manage timing risk while keeping optionality for Q2.
• Track the 15 May placed-on-market update for obligation shifts.

Seller lens: What to do now

• Make evidence visibility and timing clear—verified supply in tighter materials should draw demand.
• Expect sentiment shifts if late data lands; route-to-market and release cadence matter more in a less transparent environment.

Outlook Q1 suggests a tighter start, but RPD transition effects and potential lags mean Q2 is the real test. A rebound would point to timing/reporting effects; another weak print would embed tighter conditions across multiple materials.